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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."